Consumer confidence in the United States has slumped to its weakest level in over ten years, undercut by escalating trade tensions and growing fears of inflation and job losses.
The latest survey from the University of Michigan, released Friday, revealed that its closely watched consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.8 in April from 57 the previous month.
This marked not only a continued deterioration but also one of the lowest readings since the global financial crisis.
The figure came in well below economists’ expectations of 54.6, according to a Wall Street Journal poll.
The survey’s director, Joanne Hsu, warned of “multiple warning signs” flashing across the economy, with pessimism spreading uniformly across demographics.
He said:
This decline was pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region and political affiliation.
Expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month.
The survey was conducted from March 25 to April 8, a period bracketed by significant policy announcements.
President Trump’s April 2 declaration of “Liberation Day” tariffs set the tone, triggering a sharp sell-off in financial markets.
Though Trump later announced a 90-day pause on certain measures, he maintained blanket tariffs on nearly all imports, raising fears of prolonged economic strain.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Inflation fears reach new heights
The University of Michigan survey found that consumers’ short-term inflation expectations have soared to levels not seen since 1981.
Respondents now expect prices to rise by 6.7% over the coming year, a sharp increase from 5% in March.
Long-term inflation forecasts also climbed, reaching 4.4% for the next five years.
These expectations reflect the growing anxiety among consumers as Trump escalated tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, with Beijing retaliating in kind.
Steel, aluminum, and automotive imports remain subject to steep duties, contributing to a sense of mounting economic pressure.
Hard data, such as employment figures and retail sales, have so far offered a mixed picture.
Hiring continues at a healthy clip, but softer retail sales in recent months hint that households could soon tighten their belts.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sought to temper concerns, saying last week:
“Sometimes the surveys are very negative, but they keep spending. People spent right through the pandemic, and they spent right through this time of higher inflation.”
Wall Street jitters and recession risks loom larger
Market volatility, intensified by tariff hikes, has rattled even affluent consumers whose spending has buoyed the economy through recent years of high inflation.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, cautioned that sustained market turbulence could finally dampen their confidence.
“Wealthy consumers’ stock market gains kept the economy growing in 2024 despite high prices, but the wealthy won’t feel confident enough to keep spending if this keeps up,” Adams noted in an analyst report.
Adding to the chorus of concern, BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink likened the current environment to the uncertainty of the 2008 financial crisis.
We’ve seen periods like this before when there were large, structural shifts in policy and markets — like the financial crisis, Covid-19 and surging inflation in 2022.
“We always stayed connected with clients, and some of BlackRock’s biggest leaps in growth followed,” he added.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon also weighed in, describing the outlook as fraught with risks.
“The economy is facing considerable turbulence, with the potential positives of tax reform and deregulation and the potential negatives of tariffs and ‘trade wars,’” Dimon said following the bank’s quarterly earnings release.
As both soft data and consumer sentiment sour, the durability of the US economy appears increasingly in question.
Analysts and policymakers alike will be watching closely to see whether spending habits hold or falter under the combined weight of inflation, policy shifts, and growing market unease.
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