Braskem shares rallied on Wednesday after reports named the company as a key beneficiary of a proposed government incentive program targeting the domestic chemical sector.
At 10:25 a.m. Brasília time, Braskem’s stock was up 7.53% at R$10, having briefly climbed more than 8% earlier in the session, according to local news outlet InfoMoney.
The surge followed the Chamber of Deputies’ approval of an urgency regime for Bill 892/2025, which seeks to establish the Special Program for the Sustainability of the Chemical Industry.
Braskem, a major petrochemical firm in Latin America and the largest producer of thermoplastic resins in the Americas, is expected to be among the primary beneficiaries if the measure advances.
Legislative boost for the sector
Bill 892/2025 proposes tax credits to help the Brazilian petrochemical industry improve its competitiveness and sustainability.
The acceptance of the urgency regime is expected to speed up the legislative procedure for the measure in Congress.
Although the plan is still subject to revisions and must be voted on in full in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, its early momentum has sparked confidence among investors and experts.
Significant earnings impact projected
According to XP experts, if the PRESIQ scheme passes, Braskem’s earnings may see major gains.
The proposed measure is estimated to have a positive impact of up to US$500 million per year on Braskem’s EBITDA by 2026—roughly a 40% increase compared to current 2025 projections.
From 2027 to 2029, the annual benefit is expected to be around US$450 million.
In line with this view, Bradesco BBI also highlighted that the expected incentives will enhance Braskem’s credit profile and alleviate pressures on its debt profile.
Investor reaction
The market reaction demonstrates confidence in the bill’s anticipated passage and Braskem’s ability to capitalise on it.
While Bill 892/2025 is not guaranteed to become law, the events represent a significant shift in sentiment for the company, which has encountered challenges in recent quarters, such as low demand and high raw material costs.
The share price increase also demonstrates the market’s susceptibility to policy changes in Brazil’s industrial sectors.
The petrochemical industry, which relies largely on government subsidies due to high operating costs and global competition, stands to benefit greatly from tax relief initiatives such as PRESIQ.
Caution amid optimism
Despite the robust market reaction, analysts and stakeholders remain apprehensive.
The legislative process in Brazil can be unexpected, and the law may face opposition or changes before being approved.
However, the urgency classification indicates that lawmakers are prioritising the subject, potentially speeding up deliberations.
For the time being, investors are counting on a positive conclusion, with Braskem positioning itself as one of the clear winners if the legislation becomes law.
The combination of immediate market benefits and long-term profitability potential emphasises the PRESIQ initiative’s strategic importance not only for Braskem but also for the Brazilian chemical sector as a whole.
The proposed PRESIQ program is also part of a broader government effort to reinvigorate Brazil’s industrial base, particularly in areas where global competition and high input costs have destroyed profitability.
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