The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices and their ETFs moved sideways last week as investors focused on monetary policy and Nvidia earnings. The S&P 500 Index pulled back to $6,460 from the year-to-date high of $6,500.
Similarly, the Dow Jones Index was trading at $45,545, while the Nasdaq 100 fell from $23,965 to a low of $23,415. This article looks at the top catalysts for the indices and the ETFs like VOO, DIA, and QQQ.
US nonfarm payrolls data
The most important catalyst for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices is the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data scheduled on Friday.
This is an important report that will provide more color on the health of the American economy and will help to determine what the Federal Reserve will do in the next meeting.
In a recent statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, hinted that the bank will cut interest rates in September, citing the deteriorating labor market.
The last report showed that the economy created just 73,000 jobs in July, much lower than what analysts were expecting. This figure will likely be downgraded further based on what happened recently. Traders will want to see the revision.
The indices and their ETFs will also react to the unemployment rate. Data shows that analyts anticipate that the jobless rate rose to 4.3% in August as the economy created 78k jobs.
A weak jobs report will confirm that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, which most analysts already expect. The stock market tends to do well when the Fed is cutting interest rates.
Donld Trump tariffs in limbo
The other major catalyst for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 is the latest appeal decision on Donald Trump’s tariffs. In a ruling, a bench found that most of Trump’s tariffs are illegal, a move that the stock market would welcome.
However, the court allowed the tariffs to remain, and the Trump administration appealed. Most analysts believe that the case will go all the way to the Supreme Court, which may side with the administration.
Corporate earnings
The other minor catalysts for the indices and their ETFs will be corporate earnings. Just a handful of companies will publish their earnings, including names like Carnival, McCormick, Nike, Constellation Brands, and Lamb Weston.
The recent earnings season was highly successful. A report by FactSet shows that 98% of all companies in the S&P 500 Index have published their earnings. Of these 81% of them published an earnings beat, while the earnings growth was 11.9%. This was the third straight quarter of double-digit growth.
Top economic data
Another minor catalyst for the US stock market will be macro data from the United States and other countries. The top data to watch will be the final manufacturing and services PMI, JOLTs job vacancies, and ADP private sector data.
While important, their impact on the stock market will be muted since all eyes will be on the nonfarm payroll (NFP) data.
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