With the US government shutdown leaving investors flying blind, fresh analysis from Bybit reveals how Wall Street is adapting to the sudden blackout of official labor market statistics.
The world’s second-largest crypto exchange spotlights a growing reliance on private sources like Bloomberg and ADP, painting a picture of cautious optimism even as federal data lines stay silent.
Bloomberg estimates point to a steady ship
When Uncle Sam stops reporting, the market doesn’t stop moving.
Bybit’s TradFi Report shows traders and analysts turning to Bloomberg’s reconstructed figures, which suggest initial jobless claims fell from 231,000 to 218,000 in late October.
It’s a subtle hint that layoffs may be ebbing, despite persistent doubts, thanks to patchy state-level reporting.
Private payroll giant ADP is also stepping up with weekly updates, estimating a rebound of 14,250 new jobs per week after September’s losses.
But not everyone is celebrating yet: continuing claims have ticked up, now sitting at 1.95 million.
For federal employees, the pain runs deeper, with benefits claims surging to the highest level seen since the last government shutdown.
Investors embrace new signals and stay alert
With official government metrics paused, market pros are casting a wider net, scrutinizing online job postings, wage trends, and direct consumer sentiment to chart a path forward.
Bybit highlights this creative approach: investors are using every piece of data available, from ADP’s jobs numbers to Bloomberg’s alternative unemployment analysis, in pursuit of any sign of labor market resilience.
The overall mood? One of careful hope. Even as benefit claims keep pressure on the economy and hiring momentum remains limited, the patchwork of private data has reassured many that the jobs market isn’t veering off a cliff.
Bybit’s full report dives deeper into these indicators, providing industry players with new navigational tools until Washington’s updates return.
For the crypto-curious and traditional investors alike, Bybit continues to bridge the gap with insights and tools mixing TradFi precision and DeFi innovation.
Expect more market intelligence as the shutdown story evolves.
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