MILAN — On paper, all four qualification games in the men’s hockey tournament look like easy predictions.
But as the 2026 Winter Olympics preliminary round already has shown, anything can happen once the puck drops.
Canada, USA, Slovakia and Finland emerged from round-robin play to claim the top four seeds and advance into the quarterfinals to be played Wednesday, Feb. 18 at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena. Traditional hockey power Sweden is the biggest name that has to play for a chance to advance on Tuesday.
Here’s a look at each game, and a prediction (all times are Eastern):
Germany vs. France, winner plays Slovakia
This is one of two early (6:10 a.m.) games (this one at the Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena). The Germans haven’t had a great tournament – their only victory was against Denmark, thanks to the goaltending of Philipp Grubauer. Germany’s captain and superstar, Leon Draisaitl, has one goal and two assists – not overwhelming numbers for a guy of his skill level. He didn’t get any points in the 5-1 loss to the USA that capped the German’s final round-robin outing. But, as far as opponents go, France went 0-3 in the preliminary round, and was outscored, 20-5.
Prediction: Germany.
Switzerland vs. Italy, winner plays Finland
This is the other early game (6:10 a.m. at the Milano Rho Ice Hockey Arena). The Swiss beat France in group play, lost to Canada and beat Czechia in overtime. There’s a lot of talent on the team, even with the devastating loss of star Kevin Fiala, who was stretchered off against Canada and needed surgery to repair fractures in his left lower leg. The Swiss ended up with the fifth seed after the preliminary round. Host country Italy, on the other hand, finished at the bottom of the 12-team group, and had a minus-15 goal differential.
Prediction: Switzerland.
Czechia vs. Denmark, winner plays Canada
The game’s at 4:40 p.m. The Czechs, generally a hockey power, fell to the eighth seed after losing to Canada, beating France and falling to the Swiss in overtime. They have a minus-three goal differential. Martin Necas, their top scorer, has two goals and three assists. The Czechs come into the qualification round have played mediocre hockey so far. The Danes, on the other hand, gave USA its biggest challenge in Group C play, with the underdog twice taking the lead. They lost to Germany, too, but outplayed their southern neighbor, and then rallied to defeat Latvia in the final game. With Frederik Andersen in net and NHLers including Lars Eller and Nikolaj Ehlers in the lineup, the Danes have reason for confidence.
Prediction: Denmark
Sweden vs. Latvia, winner plays USA
The day’s late game (3:10 p.m.) puts hockey power Sweden’s Olympic hopes on the line. The Swedes looked lackadaisical in their opening game against Italy, almost winning in spite of themselves. Then they managed to give an uninspiring performance against Nordic rival Finland, outplayed by the Finns in every aspect in a 4-1 loss. The Swedes finished the round by defeating Slovakia, but allowed a late goal that gave gave Slovakia the top spot in the group. It would be an embarrassment for Sweden to not advance. Latvia ended up in fourth place in Group C, with one victory, against Germany. Always a plucky team, the Latvians can play much looser than their opponent.
Prediction: Sweden.