SpaceX (SPCX) stock fell around 4% on Wednesday to around $147, giving back most of Tuesday’s 3.7% gain as another major batch of shares became eligible for trading.
The stock has nevertheless gained more than 7% over the past month.
Wednesday’s decline came as the company’s third scheduled lockup tranche released up to 319 million Class A shares, worth roughly $49 billion at recent prices.
Another 59.1 million affiliate shares are scheduled to unlock Thursday.
SpaceX faces another major share unlock
SpaceX entered Wednesday’s unlock in a stronger position than it did the previous release.
The stock closed at $153.47 on September 8, compared with $139.65 ahead of the August unlock.
About 912 million shares became available on August 6, while another 319 million were unlocked on August 20.
Over 650 million shares are expected to become available in September, followed by more than 630 million in October.
By the end of 2026, roughly 4.9 billion SpaceX shares are expected to have become available for trading.
The growing supply of tradable shares has been an important factor in SpaceX’s early market performance.
Investors have been cautious about buying ahead of potential profit-taking by early shareholders, contributing to the stock’s decline below $105, well beneath its $135 IPO price.
But the August unlock also showed that a large increase in available shares does not necessarily trigger a sustained sell-off.
More than 900 million shares became eligible for sale on August 6, yet SpaceX recovered above its IPO price within days.
That leaves investors watching whether the latest tranche produces similar selling pressure or whether demand can absorb the additional supply.
Starship remains key to SpaceX valuation
Beyond the immediate lockup overhang, investors are also weighing how much of SpaceX’s long-term growth potential depends on Starship.
Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak said Tuesday that making Starship fully reusable is central to determining whether SpaceX’s roughly $2 trillion valuation can be justified.
His $220 price target is based on Starship achieving 20 to 50 flights per vehicle, low refurbishment costs and rapid turnaround times.
“Our $220 target is a call on reuse of 20-50 flights per vehicle, cheap refurb, fast turnaround,” Wlodarczak said.
“If that is solved, the rest of the model can happen. If it is not, SPCX is a different and much smaller company.”
The potential payoff is significant. SpaceX says Starship can carry more than 100 metric tons of payload, more than four times the capacity of its Falcon 9 rocket.
A fully reusable system could allow SpaceX to launch missions more frequently while reducing the cost of each flight.
But Starship remains under development. SpaceX has conducted only two tests of the third and latest version of the Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy booster.
The company has previously warned that development delays could continue and that significant problems could hurt its business.
SpaceX is expected to attempt its 14th Starship test as soon as next week, following a broadly successful mission in July.
During that flight, SpaceX deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites before they burned up during planned reentry.
The company has not yet disclosed the objectives for the 14th mission.
SpaceX has already spent at least $15 billion developing the vehicle, while its plans to expand launch capacity could require considerably more capital.
The company plans to spend at least $100 billion on a new spaceport in Louisiana, primarily dedicated to Starship operations.
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