Bitcoin could reclaim the “six-figure mark” by next year, according to a bullish forecast delivered Friday by Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at investment titan VanEck.
Speaking this morning with CNBC, Sigel said mounting fiscal anxiety and structural market shifts are laying the foundation for a meaningful rally.
With BTC currently hovering at $80,000 following a turbulent macroeconomic week, institutional appetite remains remarkably resilient, he added.
And as central bank liquidity shifts and sovereign debt swells, the crypto asset could rapidly mature into a macro hedge for institutional allocators globally.
What could drive Bitcoin back to $100,000?
Sigel emphasized that a major shift in market mechanics is distinguishing this cycle from previous runs.
Bitcoin’s annualized price volatility has tanked by about 50% versus four years ago – signaling an asset class maturing under institutional stewardship rather than purely speculative retail trading.
Underlying this stability is a worsening global sovereign debt landscape.
Governments remain “over-indebted,” forcing fiscal authorities into precarious positions that often favour hard-cap assets.
Sigel noted that traders are “really paying up” for puts over calls, yet simultaneous US Treasury bond buybacks have triggered aggressive short-covering rallies.
With policymakers unlikely to curb deficit spending anytime soon, any eventual easing of global monetary liquidity acts as an immediate “turbocharge for Bitcoin.”
Institutional capital may push BTC price higher
Despite the broader macroeconomic crosswinds, underlying demand from key institutional capital pools remains rather steadfast.
Conversations across the wealth management spectrum – from independent financial advisors to trillion-dollar sovereign wealth funds – reveal a major trend: institutions are accumulating Bitcoin on pullbacks.
Moreover, VanEck anticipates explosive adoption in stablecoins, driven by policy friction between Capitol Hill and traditional finance institutions.
Sigel labeled it a “remarkable irony” that legacy banking lobbies are attempting to “re-trade” and renegotiate rules that were formally enacted under last year’s landmark GENIUS Act.
This regulatory pushback from traditional banks is driving market participants toward decentralized rail alternatives at a record pace, he added.
Legislative gridlock and the horizon
The path toward $100,000 is not without regulatory hurdles, as highlighted by Capitol Hill’s latest legislative stalemate.
The US Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act earlier this week, leaving broader market-structure definitions between the SEC and CFTC temporarily in limbo.
Nevertheless, crypto adoption continues to outpace legislative delay.
The broader market backdrop, marked by recent interest rate adjustments from global central banks and persistent sovereign credit risks, continues to channel institutional flows into digital store-of-value assets.
If fiscal deficits keep expanding while global monetary policy pivots toward easing, the calendar firmly favours Bitcoin bulls aiming for $100,000 in the coming year.
This would represent about a 25% rally from the price at which the crypto king is trading at the time of writing.
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