Nvidia stock edged lower early to slip below $190, as investors weighed signs of continued strength in the artificial intelligence market against persistent policy, cost and competitive risks that have kept the stock confined to a narrow trading range.
Nvidia shares were down about 0.5% at $189.06 in early trading. The stock rose 2.5% on Monday and is hovering near its highest levels of the year.
Even so, analysts think the Nvidia stock is likely to remain range-bound until the company reports quarterly earnings later this month, when investors will look for clearer signals on growth, margins and demand visibility.
AI demand signals remain supportive
Despite the subdued price action, several indicators continue to point to solid underlying demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Nvidia’s primary manufacturing partner, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, reported a 37% rise in January revenue compared with the same period last year, reinforcing expectations of robust chip demand tied to AI workloads.
Separately, OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman told employees that the ChatGPT developer is recording monthly growth of more than 10%, according to CNBC, which cited an internal message.
The growth trajectory could support OpenAI’s planned fundraising and its continued spending on high-performance AI chips, a key demand driver for Nvidia.
Market participants said these developments underscore that AI adoption remains strong, even as investors have become more selective about valuations across the technology sector.
Range-bound trading ahead of earnings
Nvidia’s stock has seen choppy trading in recent months after a powerful multi-year rally.
Heading into earnings season, momentum has become more uneven, with investors balancing confidence in AI-driven revenue growth against concerns over valuation and policy uncertainty.
Wall Street continues to expect hefty year-on-year growth in both revenue and earnings when Nvidia reports results on February 25.
However, expectations are elevated, increasing the risk of volatility if guidance or margins fall short of optimistic forecasts.
The high bar for performance means that even minor disappointments could trigger sharp price moves, while strong results may be required to push the stock decisively out of its current range.
China exposure and cost pressures in focus
One of the most closely watched issues remains Nvidia’s exposure to China.
Export controls and regulatory restrictions have limited shipments of advanced graphics processing units to the region, clouding visibility on how much China will contribute to forward guidance.
At the same time, input costs are rising, particularly for high-bandwidth memory, a critical component for AI accelerators.
The increase in memory costs has put margins under scrutiny, especially as Nvidia ramps production of its latest platforms.
Competition is also intensifying. Hyperscale cloud providers are increasingly developing in-house chips to reduce reliance on external suppliers, prompting investors to monitor whether Nvidia can maintain pricing power and share in key accounts.
Cisco enters AI networking race
Competitive pressures were highlighted further on Tuesday as Cisco Systems unveiled a new chip and router aimed at speeding up data transmission inside massive AI-focused data centres.
Cisco said its Silicon One G300 switch chip, expected to go on sale in the second half of the year, is designed to help AI chips communicate more efficiently across hundreds of thousands of network connections.
The product will compete with offerings from Broadcom and Nvidia for a share of what is estimated to be a $600 billion AI infrastructure spending opportunity.
The chip will be manufactured using 3-nanometer technology from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and will include features intended to prevent networks from bogging down during spikes in data traffic.
The post Nvidia stock stuck around $190: HBM costs, China risks are hemming in the AI giant appeared first on Invezz