Intel stock (NASDAQ: INTC) have surged 225% in 2026, marking a sharp turnaround for a company many investors had written off just a year ago.
The chipmaker, once treated as dead money beside Nvidia, AMD and TSMC, has suddenly become one of the market’s most dramatic comeback trades.
Its shares recently traded near $120, after a blistering year-to-date surge, but the odd part is this: analysts are still not fully convinced.
The Street’s average price target sits well below the current stock price, suggesting investors may have run far ahead of the earnings story.
Intel stock: From dead money to AI darling
Intel’s rally has been powered by a sharp change in narrative as a year ago, investors were still focused on the company’s manufacturing delays, market-share losses and heavy foundry spending.
Now, the market is looking at Intel as a potential beneficiary of AI infrastructure demand, especially as CPUs regain importance in inference and agentic AI workloads.
The first-quarter numbers helped change the mood.
Intel reported revenue of $13.6 billion, up 7% year on year, while non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.29.
That was a major improvement from the year-ago period and well above the near-breakeven expectations that had shaped sentiment before earnings.
More importantly, the growth came from the parts of the company investors wanted to see working.
Data Centre and AI revenue rose 22% to $5.1 billion, while Intel Foundry revenue increased 16% to $5.4 billion.
Then came the Apple angle.
Intel has reportedly reached a preliminary agreement to manufacture some chips for Apple, a deal that would mark a major credibility boost for its foundry ambitions.
If confirmed and scaled, that would suggest Intel’s manufacturing turnaround is becoming more than a slide-deck promise.
Wall Street is not buying the hype
The rally has not turned analysts into a cheering section.
According to S&P Global data, 48 analysts have a consensus rating of Hold on Intel, with an average 12-month price target of $87.86.
That implies roughly 27% downside from recent levels.
The split tells the story as Intel has more bullish voices than it did a year ago, but the consensus remains cautious.
Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth is one of the optimists as he raised his price target to $118 from $66 and kept a Buy rating, citing Intel’s “incredibly strong” first quarter, 18A execution and momentum across AI data centres and PCs.
The bear case is valuation.
After such a sharp move, Intel is no longer priced like a turnaround stock waiting for proof. It is priced like a company that has already fixed most of its problems.
That is a tougher setup as Seeking Alpha’s May downgrade captured the concern bluntly, arguing that Intel’s forward multiple had become stretched relative to AMD and Nvidia despite slower growth and still-heavy execution risk.
There are also real business questions left.
Intel’s foundry turnaround is promising, but it is not finished as the company still has to prove that 18A can ramp cleanly, that 14A can attract external customers, and that margins can hold up as advanced packaging and manufacturing investment remain expensive.
The post Intel stock up 225% but analysts still urge caution: should investors listen? appeared first on Invezz