Updated 1 October 2026, 13:20 UTC
Micron Technology (MU): $1,065.11 at the close on Wednesday 30 September (Stock Analysis), before the fiscal fourth-quarter results came out. Pre-market quotes on Thursday ranged from roughly flat to about 1% lower; Stock Analysis showed $1,052.72, down 1.16%, at 9:07am ET.
Verdict: Micron beat on revenue and earnings and guided the next quarter well above consensus, yet the stock barely moved. The one soft number is gross margin: the fiscal Q1 guide of about 86.25% (non-GAAP) is slightly below the 87.0% just reported, the first time in this cycle the guide points down. At about 6 times forward earnings the market is pricing a cycle peak, not the guidance. Bull $1,540, base $1,200, bear $880.
This is our results-day page. For the longer-running scenario work published before the print, see our Micron stock prediction with a $1,440 bull case and $660 bear case.
Key facts
- Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue: $54.23 billion, up 379% from $11.32 billion a year earlier, against a consensus of about $51.07 billion (Micron 8-K press release, 30 September; CNBC).
- Non-GAAP EPS: $33.42 against about $31.61 expected (Micron 8-K; CNBC).
- Gross margin: 87.0% non-GAAP (86.8% GAAP), ahead of the company’s own guidance of about 86% (Micron 8-K).
- Fiscal Q1 2027 guide: revenue $61.5 billion plus or minus $1.5 billion; non-GAAP EPS $38.15 plus or minus $1.00; non-GAAP gross margin about 86.25%. Analysts polled by LSEG expected $57 billion and $35.40 (Micron 8-K; CNBC).
- Cash: operating cash flow of $43.97 billion in the quarter against net capital spending of $10.77 billion (Micron 8-K).
- Full fiscal 2026 revenue: $133.19 billion (Micron 8-K).
- Valuation and targets: forward P/E about 6.0; analyst consensus Strong Buy from 49 analysts with an average target of $1,521.11; 52-week range $163.96 to $1,255.00 (Stock Analysis, 1 October).
Where the $54.2 billion came from
Micron reports by business unit. Data centre customers drove the quarter: the Cloud Memory and Core Data Center units together brought in $34.28 billion, about 63% of revenue.
| Business unit | Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue |
|---|---|
| Core Data Center | $18.00 billion |
| Cloud Memory | $16.28 billion |
| Mobile and Client | $13.11 billion |
| Automotive and Embedded | $6.82 billion |
By technology, DRAM brought in about $39.8 billion, or 73% of revenue, and NAND about $14.1 billion (Micron 8-K). The NAND figure matters beyond Micron: it is the number investors are now using to read the rest of the flash market, as we covered in what Micron’s $14.1 billion NAND quarter means for SanDisk.
Chief executive Sanjay Mehrotra framed the quarter around AI demand: “AI is becoming Super Intelligence (SI), and memory enhances this intelligence and the competitiveness of our customers’ platforms” (Micron 8-K).
Why a beat-and-raise did not lift the stock
Three things are holding MU back on the day.
The margin guide points down, slightly. Micron guided fiscal Q1 non-GAAP gross margin to about 86.25%, below the 87.0% it just reported. A 0.75-point dip at these levels is small in dollar terms, but memory investors read margin direction as a signal of where pricing is in the cycle. Revenue guidance up 13% quarter on quarter with margins flat to lower says volume, not price, is now doing more of the work.
The run already happened. MU closed at $1,065.11, up from a 52-week low of $163.96, and about 15% below its $1,255 high (Stock Analysis). Pre-print, analysts had already moved targets up: JPMorgan’s Harlan Sur raised his to $1,540 with an Overweight rating, and Baird’s Tristan Gerra to $1,520 from $1,280 (TheStreet, TipRanks).
Estimate revisions may be smaller this time. Morgan Stanley, Overweight with a $1,200 target, said ahead of the print that it expected estimates to rise after the report but “less so than prior quarters”, and that cycle-duration debates “take longer to pay off” (Yahoo Finance).
Scenario table: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Price | vs $1,065.11 | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $1,540 | +45% | JPMorgan Overweight target (Harlan Sur); close to the $1,521 consensus average (Stock Analysis) |
| Base | $1,200 | +13% | Morgan Stanley Overweight target; below the $1,255 52-week high |
| Bear | $880 | -17% | 5 times forward earnings: the 6.04 forward P/E on $1,065.11 (Stock Analysis) implies about $176 of forward EPS; the market de-rating it by one turn as a cycle-peak discount gives about $880 |
Bull and base are targets published by the named firms, not FinanceFeeds forecasts. The bear level is our arithmetic from the stated forward multiple. The Street-high target is $2,200 (Melius Research).
What gets MU to $1,540
Delivery on the $61.5 billion guide, gross margin holding near 86% rather than sliding further, and evidence that data centre demand, now about 63% of revenue, keeps absorbing supply into 2027. Operating cash flow of nearly $44 billion in one quarter against under $11 billion of capital spending gives Micron room for buybacks, which would support the bull case even if multiples stay low.
What sends it to $880
Margins guided lower for a second straight quarter, signs that memory pricing has peaked, or a pullback in AI capital spending by the hyperscalers that make up most of Micron’s data centre revenue. Memory stocks have historically topped while earnings were still rising, so the market tends to cut the multiple before the numbers turn. Chip stocks also sold off in late September when OpenAI paused work on some advanced models (TipRanks), a reminder of how sensitive the group is to AI spending headlines.
Quick Take
Micron reported $54.23 billion of revenue and $33.42 of EPS, both ahead of forecasts, and guided to $61.5 billion and $38.15 for the next quarter, well above the $57 billion and $35.40 the Street expected. The stock is flat to lower in pre-market trading because the gross-margin guide ticked down and MU is already priced like a cycle peak at about 6 times forward earnings. Analysts’ targets run from $1,200 (Morgan Stanley) to $1,540 (JPMorgan), with the consensus at $1,521. The next quarter’s margin is the number to watch.
For the wider memory picture, see our SK Hynix bull and bear case and our earlier Micron scenarios from early September.
Frequently asked questions
What were Micron’s fiscal Q4 2026 earnings?
Revenue of $54.23 billion, up 379% year on year, and non-GAAP EPS of $33.42, against expectations of about $51.07 billion and $31.61. Non-GAAP gross margin was 87.0% (Micron 8-K, 30 September 2026).
What is Micron’s guidance for the next quarter?
For fiscal Q1 2027, Micron guided revenue to $61.5 billion plus or minus $1.5 billion, non-GAAP EPS to $38.15 plus or minus $1.00 and non-GAAP gross margin to about 86.25% (Micron 8-K).
Why is Micron stock not up after earnings?
The gross-margin guide of about 86.25% is slightly below the 87.0% just reported, the stock had already risen from $163.96 to over $1,000 in a year, and some analysts expect smaller estimate upgrades than after earlier quarters. Pre-market quotes on 1 October ranged from roughly flat to about 1% lower.
What is Micron’s stock price today?
MU closed at $1,065.11 on 30 September 2026 and was quoted at $1,052.72 in pre-market trading at 9:07am ET on 1 October (Stock Analysis). Prices move continuously, so check a live quote before trading.
What is the analyst price target for Micron?
The consensus average is $1,521.11 from 49 analysts, rated Strong Buy (Stock Analysis). Named targets include Morgan Stanley at $1,200, Baird at $1,520 and JPMorgan at $1,540; the Street high is $2,200 from Melius Research.
How much of Micron’s revenue comes from data centres?
The Core Data Center ($18.00 billion) and Cloud Memory ($16.28 billion) units made up $34.28 billion, about 63% of fiscal Q4 revenue (Micron 8-K).
Is Micron stock a buy after earnings?
FinanceFeeds does not give buy or sell recommendations. The bull case rests on the $61.5 billion guide and continued AI memory demand; the bear case on margins peaking and a lower valuation multiple. The scenario table above sets out the levels.
Sources: Micron Technology Form 8-K press release (fiscal Q4 2026, 30 September), CNBC, Stock Analysis, TheStreet, TipRanks, Yahoo Finance (Morgan Stanley note). Prices are as stated at the times shown and will have changed. This article is for information only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading stocks, crypto and derivatives involves significant risk, including the loss of capital. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.