Marvell Technology shares MRVL jumped more than 7% on Tuesday after the chipmaker unveiled significantly higher long-term revenue targets at its investor day, underscoring the scale of the opportunity it sees from the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom.
The company now expects approximately $20 billion in revenue for fiscal 2028, up from its previous forecast of $18 billion issued in August.
Marvell also projected revenue of between $70 billion and $90 billion by fiscal 2031, setting out an aggressive growth trajectory from its $8.2 billion fiscal 2026 revenue base.
Chief Executive Matt Murphy told investors that Marvell expects its total addressable market to reach about $400 billion by 2030.
The $20 billion fiscal 2028 target implies a substantial acceleration from Wall Street’s expectations.
Analysts had been forecasting revenue of $12.05 billion for fiscal 2027 and $18.2 billion for fiscal 2028 ahead of the investor day.
AI infrastructure fuels custom chip demand
Marvell’s bullish outlook is closely tied to the rapid expansion of AI data centers, where demand for custom computing and high-speed networking components continues to rise.
Chief Financial Officer Dan Durn said the global AI infrastructure buildout was continuing at significant scale and speed, supporting longer-term demand for the company’s custom compute and networking silicon.
Management also suggested that its latest targets could prove conservative as custom silicon programs with major hyperscalers ramp up.
Marvell has programs involving Google, Microsoft and Amazon, with management expecting these businesses to contribute significantly beyond 2029 as deployments scale.
A reported multiyear custom chip agreement with Google has strengthened the company’s outlook.
Marvell expanded its relationship with Google in August amid accelerating demand for custom AI chips, giving the Alphabet-owned company the option to acquire a stake worth up to $12.2 billion in the chipmaker.
Citi has pointed to a custom revenue target of more than $10 billion in fiscal 2029 associated with the Google agreement, as well as roughly $300 million in scale-up optics revenue.
Marvell’s partnership with Nvidia has also expanded its exposure to the AI infrastructure market.
Nvidia invested $2 billion in Marvell as part of a partnership under which Marvell provides custom XPUs and scale-up networking for customers developing semi-custom AI infrastructure.
Data center concentration remains a risk
The growth opportunity comes with increasing exposure to the data-center market and a relatively concentrated customer base.
Data centers accounted for 79% of Marvell’s second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue, up from 74% a year earlier.
Management expects data-center revenue to increase about 60% in fiscal 2027.
Customer concentration is also significant.
One direct customer accounted for 16% of quarterly revenue, while one distributor represented 44%.
Nevertheless, investor enthusiasm has remained strong.
Marvell shares have gained more than 225% this year, reflecting expectations that AI spending will continue to expand the market for its chips and connectivity products.
Optical networking adds another growth engine
Marvell has been broadening its AI infrastructure portfolio beyond custom silicon.
The company completed its acquisition of Celestial AI in February, adding its Photonic Fabric technology for high-bandwidth, low-latency optical interconnects.
Marvell said the acquisition opened a new addressable market in scale-up interconnects.
The company is also developing optical products capable of supporting 1.6-terabit connectivity as AI clusters require increasingly rapid connections between processors and data centers.
Cantor Fitzgerald, which raised its price target to $330 from $300 ahead of the event, said the larger data center opportunity could support a 40%-45% compound annual growth rate in revenue between calendar 2025 and 2030 and at least $20 in 2030 earnings per share.
The firm identified XPU Attach, Celestial AI, co-packaged optics, 1.6-terabit optical products, Ethernet switching and Marvell’s exposure to Nvidia’s NVLink Fusion ecosystem as potential contributors to the larger opportunity.
Citi and Rosenblatt had also maintained constructive views on Marvell ahead of the investor day, as investors increasingly weigh whether the AI infrastructure boom can support the company’s ambitious long-term targets.
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