Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO) closed at $35.87 on Friday, 2 October 2026, at 4:00 p.m. ET, on Nasdaq’s daily-close table retrieved on 5 October 2026. That print is 10.1% under the $39.88 close on 10 September 2026 and 81.5% under the $193.84 intraday high on 15 October 2025. This October case is not a rerun of a $72 bull and a $22 bear. The levels are a $58 bull, a $31 base, and a $15 bear, weighed 20%, 55%, and 25%, using reported cash and the share sales in the September filings.
The operating change is not a power contract. Oklo’s Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, filed on 7 August 2026, says the Groves Isotope Test Reactor reached first criticality on 5 August 2026. The same filing shows $1.210 million of revenue and a $48.536 million net loss. On 10 September the company ended a $1 billion at-the-market program after selling 17,971,448 shares for about $1 billion gross, and on 11 September it signed a replacement for up to another $1 billion. Aurora-INL, the Idaho National Laboratory powerhouse, has no criticality date in those documents.
Key facts
- Nasdaq close: $35.87 on 2 October 2026, 4:00 p.m. ET. Premarket last sale at 5:37 a.m. ET on 5 October was $36.16, before the cash open. The quote-page 52-week range was $34.38 to $193.84.
- Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable debt securities were $3,006.3 million at 30 June 2026, or $16.24 a share on 185,090,155 Class A shares. Restricted cash of $16.9 million is outside that total.
- Second-quarter revenue was $1.210 million. Quarterly net loss was $48.536 million. First-half operating cash use was $65.459 million. Quarterly interest income was $23.209 million, nearly twenty times revenue.
- The May 2026 ATM ended on 10 September: 17,971,448 shares and about $1.00 billion gross. A new ATM of up to $1.00 billion, commission up to 1.5%, was signed on 11 September. No filing through 1 October reports sales under it.
- Groves went critical on 5 August 2026 on a Department of Energy authorization. DOE’s preliminary safety approval for Aurora-INL was announced on 11 June 2026. The company’s first-powerhouse target is 2028.
- Illustrative cash after the finished May ATM is about $17.29 a share. Versus $35.87: bull $58 (+61.7%), base $31 (−13.6%), bear $15 (−58.2%).
What is actually happening
Oklo is still a cash-and-securities company with a services line, not a utility. The 10-Q, in thousands, records revenue of $1,210 for the quarter and the half ended 30 June 2026, against zero a year earlier. The note splits it into $800,000 of engineering and consulting, $168,000 of manufacturing and fabrication, and $242,000 of other. Cost of sales was $721,000. Nothing is labeled power sales. Net loss was $48.536 million in the quarter and $81.601 million in the half. The half-year operating loss was $124.166 million, after research and development of $66.523 million and general and administrative expense of $58.132 million. Interest income of $44.548 million covered about a third of the operating loss. Operating cash use was $65.459 million.
At 30 June, cash and equivalents were $1,644.704 million, current marketable debt securities $820.454 million, and non-current securities $541.131 million. The sum is $3,006.289 million, rounded by management to $3,006.3 million. Restricted cash was $8.400 million current and $8.500 million non-current. Liabilities were $84.325 million, including a $25.000 million right-of-first-refusal liability, against equity of $3,273.557 million and net plant of $176.195 million. The prospectus supplement dated 11 September 2026 puts net tangible book value at $3.2 billion, or $17.34 a share, on 185,090,155 shares. Management said the 30 June cash and securities would fund one year of operations from the filing date, and that there were no material commitments at 30 June. The Tennessee fuel-center roadmap of up to $1.68 billion is therefore not a recorded obligation. Half-year capital spending and prepayments were $126.9 million.
Dilution dwarfs the loss. A December 2025 ATM, capped at $1.5 billion, was completed by 31 March 2026 after 12,376,352 shares at an average net price of $96.95, gross proceeds of $1,199.868 million and net proceeds of $1,181.897 million. The May 2026 program, capped at $1 billion, had issued 10,712,054 shares by 30 June at a $63.51 average net price, gross $680.371 million and net $670.047 million. Combined ATM gross proceeds in the half were $1,880.239 million. Financing cash flow was $1,851.349 million.
The Form 8-K filed on 11 September 2026, signed by chief financial officer R. Craig Bealmear, terminates that May program effective at the close on 10 September, with no penalty. Oklo had sold 17,971,448 shares for approximately $1,000,000,000 gross and said it would sell no more under it. Subtract the 10-Q’s 10,712,054 shares and $680.371 million and the residual is 7,259,394 shares and about $319.6 million gross after 30 June. That figure is arithmetic, not a reported September cash balance. A 1.5% commission on the residual would be about $4.8 million. Shares outstanding were 186,017,650 on 4 August, only 927,495 above the 30 June count, so most of that residual, if the subtraction is complete, was sold after 4 August and before 10 September. The lowest close in the Nasdaq series was $35.62 on 16 September. The 2 October close is $0.25 above it.
The new program, also dated 11 September, is with Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Cantor Fitzgerald, Guggenheim, Canaccord Genuity, and B. Riley. Oklo may sell up to $1,000,000,000 gross at its discretion. Commission is up to 1.5%. Proceeds are for general corporate purposes, working capital, capital spending, and possible investments. Submissions show no 8-K after 11 September through the Form 144 on 1 October. Sales must be reported at least quarterly, so an undisclosed sale is still possible. At $35.87, the full $1 billion is about 27.9 million shares, 14.5% of the 192,349,549 illustrative shares used below (185,090,155 plus 7,259,394). Options on 5,738,353 shares at a $2.07 average price would raise only about $11.9 million. Unvested units covered 3,525,985 shares. Both are secondary to the ATM.
What the company and its counterparties are saying
The reactor that has started is not the one the stock is priced on. Oklo’s 6 August 2026 release said the Groves Isotope Test Reactor in Lockhart, Texas, had reached a low-power chain reaction less than a year after groundbreaking. The 10-Q dates criticality to 5 August and calls it the first Reactor Pilot Program reactor to go critical on private land. Jacob DeWitte, co-founder and chief executive, said: “Reaching criticality in less than a year is an incredible milestone for our team.” Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy Ted Garrish said: “We applaud the work of the Oklo, DOE, and Idaho National Laboratory staff who helped achieve this milestone.”
That path was DOE authorization, not an NRC operating license. The 10-Q lists the January agreement, a safety-design approval on 17 March, a preliminary analysis on 27 May, a final analysis on 30 June, and startup authorization on 23 July. Mike Goff, principal deputy assistant secretary, said in the 23 July 2026 release: “With the right enabling environment, Oklo has been able to accelerate their progress and is now ready to take the next step with their technology.” The sentence is about Groves. The income statement shows no isotope revenue that would prove the model has moved into sales.
Aurora-INL is behind that sequence. The 11 June 2026 release said DOE’s Idaho Operations Office had approved the preliminary documented safety analysis. DeWitte said: “This approval represents an important milestone for Aurora-INL and helps establish a foundation for future Aurora deployments.” The 10-Q calls the early-2026 safety-design agreement one of five DOE steps. A preliminary analysis is not startup authorization. Groves still needed a final analysis and a startup sign-off after its own preliminary review. Those later Aurora steps are not in the August 10-Q or the September 8-K. The company’s target remains a first powerhouse in 2028, for a design of 15 to 75 megawatts electric.
Fuel is awards and letters, not a loaded Aurora core. The 10-Q cites a site-use permit and five metric tons of HALEU from recovered EBR-II uranium. The June release says the fuel-fabrication facility’s preliminary safety analysis was approved in December 2025, the first under the Fuel Line Pilot Program. A December 2025 plutonium experiment with Los Alamos is in the 10-Q, and May 2026 brought selection for surplus-plutonium negotiations. The 26 May 2026 release says a newcleo partnership includes up to $2 billion via a newcleo-affiliated vehicle, “subject to mutually acceptable documentation and industry conditions.” That sum is not in the $3,006.3 million. Non-marketable equity investments were $28.6 million.
The 18 June 2026 release with Centrus is a letter of intent for HALEU covering up to five Aurora powerhouses, deliveries scheduled to begin in 2029, for a planned 1.2 gigawatt campus in Pike County, Ohio. Amir Vexler, Centrus chief executive, called it “an important step toward ensuring reliable HALEU supply for next generation reactors.” The 10-Q says price, volume, and prepayments still need a definitive contract. Kiewit is on that Ohio memorandum and, in the 10-Q, is Idaho lead constructor. A 5 January 2026 Meta prepayment agreement states no dollar amount in the 10-Q. A February 2024 letter left a $25 million advance as a liability, not revenue. Equinix, Diamondback, Prometheus, a Switch agreement the company calls 12 gigawatts, and an Eielson notice for at least 5 megawatts are not power sales. Running fleets are a different pattern: Vistra’s 4 gigawatts with Amazon and Meta and Constellation’s fleet.
No brokerage price target is printed in the 10-Q, the 8-K, or the prospectus. This case does not borrow one. The ten banks are sales agents, paid up to 1.5%. That is distribution, not research.
A valuation a reader can recompute
Scenarios use the $35.87 regular-session close, not the $36.16 premarket sale at 5:37 a.m. ET on 5 October. From $193.84 on 15 October 2025 the decline is ($193.84 − $35.87) / $193.84, or 81.5%. From the 1 October 2025 close of $115.93 it is 69.1%.
Cash per share at 30 June is $3,006.289 million divided by 185,090,155, or $16.24. The $17.34 book value includes plant. Add the derived 7,259,394 shares and about $319.6 million of residual gross proceeds and the illustrative count is 192,349,549 shares and about $3,325.9 million, or $17.29 a share. That sketch ignores a commission of up to 1.5%, post-June cash burn, compensation issuance, and the $4.033 million accumulated other comprehensive loss at 30 June. Market value on the illustrative count is $6,899.6 million. Subtract the illustrative cash and about $3,573.7 million, or $18.58 a share, is the non-cash stub. NuScale and X-Energy are separate stocks and are not inputs here.
| Scenario | Price | Versus $35.87 | Weight | Assumption a reader can recompute |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $58 | +61.7% | 20% | September ATM unused. Price is $17.29 of illustrative cash plus a $40.71 stub, a bit more than double today’s $18.58. |
| Base | $31 | −13.6% | 55% | Half the new $1 billion sells at $36. After a 1.5% commission, cash per share is about $18.51 and the stub is $12.49. |
| Bear | $15 | −58.2% | 25% | The full $1 billion sells at $28. Diluted cash is about $18.90. The $15 price treats about $890 million as spent before Aurora power revenue. |
The bull case does not draw the September ATM, so $58 is the $17.29 cash figure plus the $40.71 stub. The base sale is $500 million gross at $36, or 13,888,889 shares. Net of 1.5% that is $492.5 million, 206,238,438 shares, and $3,818.4 million of cash, or $18.51. A $31 price leaves a $12.49 stub. The 55% weight reflects real cash, a real dilution right, and no priced power contract in the filings. The bear sale is 35,714,286 shares at $28. Net cash in is $985 million. The count becomes 228,063,835 and cash $4,310.9 million, or $18.90 a share. Fifteen dollars is $3.90 under that cash, about $890 million. The Tennessee roadmap could absorb that sum, but the 10-Q says it is not a commitment, which is why the bear weight stays at 25%.
The regulatory split between DOE and the NRC
For Aurora-INL the 10-Q says the primary path is DOE authorization to build and operate under DOE oversight. Pilot-program selection is dated 13 August 2025. Idaho environmental compliance is described as complete. None of that is an NRC combined license. The NRC accepted the Aurora-INL principal design criteria topical report in August 2025 and approved it in April 2026. A July 2025 pre-application review found no significant gap that would block the siting and environmental parts of a combined license. Oklo says it is still choosing when, and in what form, to file, including under a finalized Part 53 and a proposed Part 57. No accepted combined license application is described in the 10-Q or the September 8-K.
Tennessee recycling is still pre-application, not a construction permit. An NRC materials license at the Idaho laboratory is not an Aurora operating license. The stock’s regulatory gap is simple. Groves went from a January agreement to August criticality inside one DOE pilot, at low power, for isotopes. Aurora-INL has a preliminary safety analysis and a 2028 company target. The document that would change the cash math is a DOE startup authorization for Aurora-INL, or an NRC application the commission has accepted. Neither is in the filings reviewed here.
What happens next
Three predictions follow from the documents, not from the chart. First, the next quarterly report is where use of the 11 September ATM must appear. The prospectus requires quarterly disclosure of shares, net proceeds, and agent pay. The quarter ended 30 September 2026, and Oklo has not posted that report’s date in the filings reviewed here, so none is invented. If the shares stay near $35.87, the prediction is that little or none of the new $1 billion is sold before year-end. Cash and securities were already $3,006.3 million at 30 June. Selling near a third of the $63.51 second-quarter net price is a choice unless a new commitment appears.
Second, Aurora-INL gets no DOE startup authorization in 2026 and no criticality date is set this year. Groves needed a final analysis, a 23 July startup authorization, and 5 August criticality after its preliminary step. Aurora has not been described as holding those later papers. The target is still 2028. Third, 2026 revenue stays under $10 million unless a new contract is filed. Half-year revenue was $1.210 million, none of it power. Centrus deliveries, if contracted, are described as starting in 2029.
The next 10-Q is the check on ATM sales and on cash after 30 June. Through year-end the check is whether Aurora moves past a preliminary safety analysis. The company’s later markers are 2028 for a first powerhouse and 2029 for HALEU only if Centrus signs a contract.
This is analysis, not investment advice.
FAQ
What price is this Oklo case measured against?
The anchor is Nasdaq’s regular-session close of $35.87 on Friday, 2 October 2026, at 4:00 p.m. ET. A premarket last sale of $36.16 showed on the same feed at 5:37 a.m. ET on 5 October, before the cash open, and is not the anchor. The $58, $31, and $15 levels are FinanceFeeds assumptions drawn from the 30 June balance sheet and the September ATM filings. They are not an Oklo forecast and not a brokerage price target.
How much cash does Oklo have per share?
The 10-Q reports $3,006.3 million of cash, cash equivalents, and marketable debt securities at 30 June 2026, which is $16.24 a share on 185,090,155 Class A shares. Adding about $319.6 million of derived post-June ATM gross proceeds and 7,259,394 shares produces an illustrative $17.29. That is not a reported 30 September balance. Restricted cash of $16.9 million is excluded, and later commissions and operating spend are not yet in a filing.
Did the Groves criticality mean the Aurora powerhouse is operating?
No. The Groves Isotope Test Reactor in Lockhart, Texas, reached first criticality on 5 August 2026 under a Department of Energy authorization. It is a low-power isotope test reactor on private land. Aurora-INL, at Idaho National Laboratory, has a preliminary documented safety analysis announced on 11 June 2026. The filings give Aurora no criticality date. Oklo’s own target for a first powerhouse remains 2028.
How dilutive is the new $1 billion ATM?
The 11 September 2026 agreement lets Oklo sell up to $1 billion gross, when it chooses, through ten banks, at a commission of up to 1.5%. At the $35.87 close that is about 27.9 million shares, or 14.5% of the 192.3 million illustrative shares left after the May program. No filing through 1 October reports a sale under the new program. The prospectus says sales are disclosed at least quarterly, so the next 10-Q is the first required look.
What would have to happen for the $58 bull case?
The bull case leaves the new ATM unused, so illustrative shares stay near 192.3 million and illustrative cash stays near $17.29. Buyers would also pay $40.71 a share for the non-cash business, a bit more than double the $18.58 stub at the 2 October close. That re-rating carries a 20% weight here. It is not a claim that DOE has set an Aurora startup date. No such date is in the filings.
Why is the bear case $15 if diluted cash is near $19?
Selling the full new $1 billion at an average of $28 would leave diluted cash of about $18.90 a share after a 1.5% commission. The $15 bear case is $3.90 below that, or about $890 million across the diluted count. It gives the unbuilt plants no value and treats a slice of cash as spent before any Aurora power revenue. The 10-Q says the Tennessee roadmap of up to $1.68 billion is not a booked commitment. The weight is 25%.